5 bold predictions for the Detroit Lions in Week 18 at Green Bay Packers

Heading into a big regular season finale, here are 5 bold predictions for the Detroit Lions against the Green Bay Packers in Week 18.

For the second straight year, the Detroit Lions will play a prime time game at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers. But this time (it was Monday Night Football last year), it’s Sunday Night Football and the final game of the 2022 regular season with potential playoff stakes (win-and-in) for both teams.

For the Packers, it’s a clear-cut win-and-in scenario. For the Lions, it’ll at least be a chance to play spoiler, finish the season above .500 at 9-8, set a general tone and earn a season sweep of the Packers.

The Packers are favored to win, and Sunday night’s game has the second-highest over/under on the Week 18 NFL slate (49.5 points, via FanDuel Sportsbook–odds subject to change).

As they look to finish the 2022 regular season on the highest of high notes, with a win if not a playoff berth, here are five bold predictions for the Detroit Lions against the Green Bay Packers in Week 18.

5 bold predictions for the Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers in Week 18

5. Jamaal Williams scores multiple rushing touchdowns

Williams leads the NFL with 15 rushing touchdowns this season, including five games where he has had multiple scores. So this prediction may not seem that “bold”. But he had gone without a touchdown in three straight games before Week 17 against the Chicago Bears, and he has just (relatively compared to his start to the season) three touchdowns over his last seven games.

Williams is also one touchdown shy of tying Barry Sanders’ single-season franchise record for rushing touchdowns (16; set in 1991) and two touchdowns would of course give him the record by himself.

On Friday, running backs coach Duce Staley noted the significance of getting Williams the touchdown (or touchdowns?) he needs.

Compared to how they poorly they rank overall as a run defense, the Packers have been relatively stingy allowing rushing scores to running backs this season (11 over 16 games). But Williams will have plenty of chances to score against his former team, and doing so twice shouldn’t be a problem.

4. Michael Badgley will make at least one 50-plus yard field goal

An under the radar aspect of the Lions’ turnaround from a 1-6 to currently 8-8 is how Badgley has stabilized the kicker spot after a season-plus of changing placekickers seemingly as often as (metaphorically, of course) some people change underwear.

Badgley has not been perfect, with a legit announcer’s jinx from Jim Nantz on a short miss against the Buffal Bills on Thanksgiving Day and missed field goals in back-to-back weeks (Week 14 and 15). But the Week 15 miss was from 54 yards outdoors against the Jets, so he gets a bit of a mulligan there.

Conditions on Sunday night won’t be what they could easily be in Green Bay at Lambeau Field in January, with a kickoff temperature around 25 degrees, a “feels like” temp forecasted in the 15-20 degree range and sustained winds of 5-10 MPH (gusts to 17 MPH are being forecasted).

Field conditions will be a concern, but cleats can be worn to mitigate that as much as possible. So if the wind is the right direction (or not an issue at all), the broader situation warrants giving it a try (end of half? end of game? etc.) and Badgley is comfortable trying a long field goal, he should get a shot at a 50-plus yarder or two. Making one to win the game would be especially sweet.

3. The Lions will score a touchdown that’s not traditional in some way

When I say “not traditional”, I mean touchdowns that are not typical or occur often–special teams touchdowns, defensive touchdowns, someone who’s not a quarterback throwing a touchdown, someone who’s not a running back (or a quarterback) running for a touchdown, someone who’s not a wide receiver, tight end or running back catching a touchdown, etc.

It’s fair to say the Lions will pull out all the stops against the Packers on Sunday night. Dan Campbell is not afraid to go for it on fourth down, sometimes to a fault, and he empowers his coaches (special teams coordinator Dave Fipp and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson as the obvious examples) to try things. Fake punts, reverses, throws to an athletic offensive tackle, etc.

The Lions have plenty of candidates to score a touchdown in a way they ordinarily might not.

Rookie wide receiver Jameson Williams almost broke a longer scamper for a touchdown on his 40-yard run against the Bears in Week 17. Running back Jamaal Williams might be able to throw the ball a little. Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown had a rushing touchdown last year, and he has 95 rushing yards this season. Punter Jack Fox has a passer rating of 110.4 on four career pass attempts (44 yards on three completions). Safety C.J. Moore had a 40-plus yard run on a fake punt a few weeks ago, and it nearly went further. And can we rule out a tackle-eligible pass to Penei Sewell in the end zone?

The Lions will not be afraid to “empty the bag” on Sunday night. A “non-traditional” touchdown could very easily follow.

2. Amon-Ra St. Brown gets double-digit receptions

Green Bay has two very good cornerbacks in Jaire Alexander and Rasul Douglas, but as primarily perimeter corners how much one or the other will cover St. Brown (or travel with him) on Sunday is unclear.

Via Matt Harmon of Yahoo!:

"Amon-Ra St. Brown has earned a first down on 17 percent of his third-down routes. To put some context behind the number: That ranks first among all wide receivers with 10-plus third-down targets. St. Brown was one of the best bets you could make in fantasy football and a huge factor in why the once-lowly Lions are a playoff contender heading into the final week of the season. Green Bay just put the clamps on Justin Jefferson last week. However, the routes St. Brown runs and where he lines up pre-snap — 55% of snaps in the slot, vs. 23% for Jefferson — will make that a difficult plan to replicate. It also helps that Detroit has a variety of secondary and tertiary threats defenses need to worry about, which, strange as it is to say, Minnesota can’t really claim."

St. Brown had just four catches for 55 yards (on nine targets) against the Packers back in Week 9. But that was a different Lions’ offense, and a different version of Jared Goff. As Alexander and Douglas make Detroit’s outside receivers more hit-and-miss for notable production on Sunday night, the “Sun God” becomes a high-volume option to great success.

1. Lions win comfortably

By comfortably I mean Aaron Rodgers has no chance to lead the Packers on a game-winning, or even a game-tying, final drive in the fourth quarter. Which automatically means the Lions are leading by more than one score (eight points) if/when that situation presents itself on Sunday night.

The four-game winning streak the Packers have authored to give themselves a chance to make the playoffs in Week 18 has come against one team who currently has a winning record–the 12-4 Minnesota Vikings, who are a flimsy 12-4 to say the least with a litany of narrow wins and some ugly losses (including 41-17 to the Packers in Week 17).

Compared to some failures to so during their dismal 1-6 start to the season, the Lions have avoided mistakes, come up with clutch plays at times and closed out some wins by solid margins during their stretch of seven victories in their last nine games.

Whether a win puts them in the playoffs or not is ultimately a moot point for the Lions. It’s about ending the season on the best note, and beating the Packers by double-digits with the entire football world watching would get it done nicely.

Final Score Prediction: Lions 27, Packers 17.