Here are five bold predictions for the Detroit Lions against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 14.
The last three games the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings have come down to the wire. The Lions got their first win of the 2021 campaign at home against Minnesota in Week 13 last season. Week 3 this season, the Lions led late only to lose and head coach Dan Campbell was open this week how his poor decision at a critical point sticks with him.
The 5-7 Lions are narrow favorites over the 10-2 Vikings (1.5 or two points depending on where you look). So the Vikings don’t even have to make up a lack of respect, at least from the sportsbooks if not from the league as a whole based on their litany of one-score games.
Sunday’s game also carries one of the highest over-unders on this week’s slate, as Lions’ games have tended to do all season with the formula of a productive offense and a defense that has had its struggles.
The Vikings can clinch the NFC North with a win or a tie on Sunday. A loss would drop the Lions to 5-8, and be a significant blow to their playoff chances regardless of the results for the teams their chasing.
In what should be a fun, close, high-scoring game, here are five bold predictions for the Lions against the Vikings in Week 14.
5 bold predictions for the Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings Week 14
5. Lions have at least three sacks of Kirk Cousins
The Lions are close to the bottom of the league with 22 sacks this season. But they have multiple sacks in four straight games, and in six of their last seven.
Aidan Hutchinson has rounded into better form lately, and fellow rookie James Houston has made an instant impact since being promoted from the practice squad (three sacks in two games, over 17 total defensive snaps). John Cominsky, who was leading the team in quarterback pressures early in the season before an injury cost him time, is back healthy and another rookie (Josh Paschal) has played fairly well when he’s been on the field. Oh, and Romeo Okwara (10 sacks in 2020) is lined up to make his 2022 season debut against the Vikings on Sunday.
The Vikings may get young stud left tackle Christian Darrisaw (concussion) back on Sunday. But there are mismatches to be had elsewhere along the Minnesota offensive line, and center Garrett Bradbury was listed as questionable on Friday.
Kirk Cousins is not a mobile quarterback, and he’s dramatically less effective when under pressure (as most quarterbacks are). Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn will have something for the Vikings’ signal caller on Sunday, and it’ll yield at least a trio of sacks.
4. Vikings running back Dalvin Cook held to under 50 rushing yards
Cook has been noticeably less effective at times this season, continuing a trend cited by ESPN analytics guy Seth Walder (subscription required, h/t to Heavy for the quote).
"Over the past three seasons, Cook’s rush yards over expectation — a Next Gen Stats metric that estimates the mean rush yards a runner should average based on the location and speed of every player at the time of handoff — have dropped from plus-250 in 2020 to plus-81 in 2021 to minus-5 this year,” Cook has rushed for less than what was expected of him."
What’s more, here’s what some opposing lead backs have done against the Lions lately.
Aaron Jones, Week 9: nine carries for 25 yards; two catches for 20 yards
David Montgomery, Week 10: nine carries for 37 yards; one catch for seven yards (Khalil Herbert: 10 carries for 57 yards)
Saquon Barkley, Week 11: 15 carries for 22 yards; two catches for 13 yards
Travis Etienne, Week 13: 13 carries for 54 yards; three catches for 12 yards
Cook had 17 carries for 96 yards against the Lions back in Week 3. But he’s been held under 50 yards on the ground in two of his last five games, and it not for an 81-yard touchdown run against Buffalo in Week 10 there’s a good chance it’d be three of five.
3. DJ Chark goes for over 100 yards with a touchdown
Chark is healthy after an ankle injury cost him several games, and he’s coming off his best game of the season in Week 13 (five catches for 98 yards). He had a touchdown in Week 12.
Pro Football Focus data points to favorable matchups for Chark this week against Vikings cornerbacks Cameron Dantzler and Chandon Sullivan when he lines up wide-right or in the slot. He has lined up in those to spots for a total of 53.3 percent of his snaps over the last two games, according to PFF.
Chark is in a smash-spot against the Vikings. Going bold to predict triple-digit yardage and score for him on Sunday.
2. D’Andre Swift has 100 total yards with at least one touchdown
The Vikings have allowed over 100 total yards to a running back in back-to-back games, and in three of their last four. They’ve allowed the sixth-most receptions to running backs this season (6.1 per game), and Swift has the passing down back role in the Detroit backfield basically to himself.
Swift has also scored in six of his nine games this season, with close calls in a couple others. It’s easy to bet the overs on his catches and total yards, but I’m taking the latter number a good bit further by predicting at least 100 for Swift on Sunday.
1. Lions win by at least seven
Simply put, the Lions have closed out games far better lately. Thanksgiving Day was the exception, but Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs happened and the Detroit defense is hardly alone in falling short against those two.
The Vikings have had some good fortune mixed with timely plays to eke out a long list of narrow wins. The Lions won’t make enough mistakes on Sunday to allow the Vikings to escape this time, and a late score of some sort will create a final margin of at least seven.
Prediction: Lions 31, Vikings 23