Dec 22, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) congratulates wide receiver Calvin Johnson (81) during the fourth quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at Ford Field. Falcons won 31-18. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

It didn’t take long after Calvin Johnson broke Jerry Rice‘s single-season receiving yards record for opinions to start to fly about what exactly it means. No one will mistake these Lions for Rice‘s 49ers, but does that even matter when discussing Johnson’s record-breaking season?

Jon Gruden let his opinion be known from the Monday Night Football broadcast booth:

“They don’t keep a record of meaningless yards, and these are meaningless yards,” Gruden said. “I hate to say it, but they are.”

The problem with Gruden’s declaration is that it attempts to assign something that is beyond the scope of the accomplishment. Calvin Johnson is the NFL record holder for most receiving yards in a season. That, like all records of that sort, are simple facts. Trying to assign meaning to the feat or comparing seasons to determine which is “best” requires the added layer of subjectivity. Want to say that Jerry Rice’s 1995 season was “better” than Calvin Johnson’s 2012 season? Fine, but that is a different discussion entirely.

Jerry Rice set a record, Calvin Johnson broke it (with a game still to play, mind you). When the next generation of football fans look into the record books and see whatever Johnson’s final number of receiving yards turns out to be, they won’t give any consideration to the Lions’ poor season or the circumstances by which Johnson accumulated his total. How many today are adding qualifiers to the mark Rice set since he did it in an expansion year that produced three of the top six receiving yards totals before this season, or that some measure of advantage shifted to the offense that season as it was the first that allowed communication devices in quarterbacks’ helmets? No one, nor should there be anyone.

What does Calvin Johnson’s record mean? It means no other player in NFL history has put together a season with as many receiving yards as he did this season. Was last week’s game against the Falcons meaningless from the Lions’ side of things? Yes, but every year there are teams that play meaningless games and many that play more meaningless games that the Lions truly did this season. But none of those players were able to do what Calvin Johnson has done. That should be celebrated, not debated or diminished.

Dec 22, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson (81) runs the ball after the catch against the Atlanta Falcons during 2nd half of a game at Ford Field. Falcon won 31-18. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

That would put Calvin Johnson in a league of his own and should put the questions to rest about who the best receiver in the game is. It should also put Calvin Johnson in the conversation for MVP, but the fact that the Lions sit at 4-10 will no doubt keep him from winning the award.

There are also those who believe Johnson’s record is tarnished because his yards have come when the Lions were down and had no chance of winning. ESPN’s Jon Gruden is one of those skeptics who believes that his record isn’t as impressive as when Jerry Rice first set it in 1995.

“They don’t keep a record of meaningless yards, and these are meaningless yards.. I hate to say it, but they are.” -Jon Gruden

While Gruden has a point, I disagree with the idea that the record is tarnished. For example, the Lions may have only won four games, but they have been within one score in each game they have played and lost, with the exception of three games. Then take into consideration that Johnson has been part of a receiving corps that is without Titus Young, Ryan Broyles, Brandon Pettigrew, and Nate Burleson and it becomes obvious that defenses should be able to focus solely on Johnson and contain him, yet containing Johnson has been unsuccessful all season.

Obviously the players listed above haven’t missed the entire season, but they have collectively missed the last two games where Johnson has tallied 346 receiving yards for an average of 173.0 yards a game. Since Nate Burleson broke his leg in week 6, Johnson has gained 1,300 yards and averaged 144.4 yards a game. Since Titus Young played his final game of the season against the Packers in week 10, Johnson has gained 775 yards with an average of 155.0 yards a game. Since Broyles went down with a season ending ACL injury against the Colts early in the first quarter in week 12, Johnson has gained 635 yards for 158.75 yards.

As you can tell, Johnson only got better as his complimentary threats fell for one reason or another. As the Lions offense became more one dimensional and opposing defenses focused more on containing Johnson, he became more dominant. Johnson may have had some “meaningless yards”, but his record is anything but tarnished.

Sep 30, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson (81) warms up before the game against the Minnesota Vikings at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Calvin Johnson‘s chase of Jerry Rice‘s single-season receiving yards record has been widely covered, both on this site and others. Calvin Johnson’s season has been put side-by-side with Jerry Rice’s record-setting 1995 season and the pace statistics have been calculated and recalculated with each passing week.

The chase watch has largely focused on Johnson’s pursuit of the record and used his statistics to date to predict the end point. Don’t get me wrong, there isn’t anything wrong with that – it just puts a restraint on the situation that limits the way we look at things. At this point it almost looks like a foregone conclusion that Calvin Johnson will break the record but when exactly that will happen has been overlooked.

Megatron heads into week 16 with 1,667 receiving yards this season needing to get that number up to 1,849 to break Rice‘s record. That leaves 182 yard to go with two games to go, requiring a minimum average of 91 yards per game to get there. It’s been at this point we mostly say “yay, he’s going to do it” and leave it at that. But we shouldn’t. Doing so runs the risk of the record sneaking up on us.

A 182 yard day against the Falcons is going to take a big effort but not anything we haven’t seen from Calvin Johnson before. In fact, he has gone over that mark three times in his career. He has done it once this season, twice this calendar year and three times over the last two seasons.

Take those three performances over his 90-game career and you could say there is a 3.33% chance that the record goes down on Saturday night. If you want to say these last two season represent a “new Megatron” then perhaps there is as much as a 10% (3/30) chance Rice is toppled this week.

Whether you’re sitting inside Ford Field or watching from home on Saturday night, don’t think of each catch as another step towards a record that won’t be set until next week. Think of it as a step towards a record that could be set that night.