Dec 30, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) in a huddle with his teammates during the game against the Chicago Bears at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

It is the time of year when every NFL fans wants to believe their team has good things in store for the season ahead. That is particularly true of Detroit Lions fans who had to endure a terribly disappointing 4-12 season following a ten-win season and a playoff appearance.

The Lions have done a good job adding talent at critical areas but there is more than good old fashioned optimism that says the Lions are primed for a bounce-back year. In fact, there are two metrics that say the 2012 Lions’ 4-12 season was an artificially low result.

Statistical Underachievers

The net difference between points scored and points allowed has been shown to be the best predictor of team success. If you want to know the particulars you can read up on Pro-Football-Reference but the basic premise is that an expected win value can be calculated based on how many points a team gives up and how many they score based on historical data.

Cold Hard Football Facts tracks correlation between winning percentage and five different independent variables. After all the wheel turning CHFF lists the Lions as the second biggest underachiever checking in with 2.08 wins less than expected. In other words, while the Lions won just four games, they performed like a team expected to win six games.

That doesn’t make the 2012 any less painful, but it does suggest their foundation heading into 2013 isn’t as bad as it might look according to the standings.

Offensive Mix

In yesterday’s ‘Scanning the Savanna’ I linked to a good article by The National Football Post’s Joe Fortenbaugh in which he recounted his experience working under current Cleveland Browns general manager Mike Lombardi. One of the things he learned from Lombardi was the target of 50 combined completions and rushing attempts. He notes the link between hitting (or getting close to) that magic number and team success.

Fortenbaugh did the work of compiling the data for the 2012 season and the Lions were one of just seven teams to meet or exceed 50 combined completions and rushing attempts. Fortenbaugh took a look at the top ten for combined completions and rushing attempts per game and that group’s winning percentage checks in at .631. Conversely, the bottom ten teams for combined completions and rushing attempts had a combined winning percentage of just .387.

The Lions find themselves in the “right” group but their 4-12 record makes them a severe outlier. Outliers have a tendency to not hang around so we have to ask ourselves what is more likely to change, the Lions’ record or their combined number of completions and rushing attempts?

If you belive the Lions are going to mostly do what they have done in the past offensively, you’re left with the record changing for the better.

Is all this a guarantee of success in 2013? Of course not, but don’t sleep on this team just because the win total took a steep step back last season.

Scanning the Savanna searches the web for Detroit Lions content each morning and brings it to your fingertips in one easy location.

The Magic Number is 50
Joe Fortenbaugh – The National Football Post

The top-10 teams in rushing attempts + completions combined to post a record of 101-59 (.631) in 2012, with seven of those ten organizations advancing to the postseason. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the bottom-10 teams combined for a 62-97-1 (.387) mark, with zero total playoff berths.

NFC North Power Rankings: Where Do the Detroit Lions Land?
Nick Kostora – Yahoo! Contributor Network

3. Detroit Lions
It really is a coin flip at this point between the Lions and the Minnesota Vikings, but the Lions have to get the nod because of the clear attempts they have made to fix the issues in the running game and in the secondary. Those need areas have been addressed this offseason by bringing in running back Reggie Bush and drafting cornerback Darius Slay, but we still need to see these players on the field before true judgement can be made.

Detroit Lions’ Ziggy Ansah, Larry Warford get tour of Ford Field, take part in youth camps
Dave Birkett – Detroit Free Press

Ziggy Ansah and the rest of the Lions’ 2013 draft class got a tour of Ford Field as part of the team’s rookie orientation program Monday.

They met some of the gameday staff, saw the view from the suitesand walked out of the tunnel like they’ll do three months from now when they begin their NFL careers.

“It was funny ’cause I was just thinking about that,” Ansah said. “I’m like, ‘Man, how great would it be just coming out of the tunnel, everybody screaming, yelling, about to take the first snap.’ It was really touching to me. Right now, I’m getting a little bit emotional, but I’m trying not to.”

DT C.J. Mosley absorbing Lions’ non-stop defensive mentality
Tim Twentyman – DetroitLions.com

C.J. Mosley is new to the Lions’ defensive line this year after signing as a free agent in April.

It didn’t take long into the offseason training program for him to figure out that the Lions’ defensive line operates a little bit differently than some others he’s been around in his nine NFL seasons.

“You have to be able to run to the ball,” said the 6-foot-2, 310-pound Mosley, with a laugh, after a mini-camp practice last week.

June 11, 2013; Allen Park, MI, USA; Detroit Lions running back Reggie Bush (21) during mini camp at Lions training facility. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

When Reggie Bush was shopping for teams to most likely end his football career with he only had one criteria, a team that could win the Super Bowl. So he picks the Detroit Lions? Doesn’t he know his NFL history? To the casual fan it might look like Bush is going to end his career a bust by joining the perennial league doormats. Far from it. But I do think Reggie Bush has a bust in mind – a Hall of Fame bust.

At this point in his career, if you asked any football fan if Bush has a chance to make the Hall of Fame, they probably couldn’t say no fast enough. I think this was in the back of his mind when he signed with the Lions and thought that the best chance he has to get there was to be the catalyst, the guy who got the Detroit Lions to the Super Bowl. If he’s the one who turned the tables for the Lions and made them into Super Bowl champs, that would make him one of the NFL’s greatest stories in it’s history. The title of “The guy who got the Detroit Lions to the Super Bowl” alone should get him in the Hall by itself.

The crazy thing is, he might be able to do it. With Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Ndumakong Suh, the Lions have won what? That’s right, nothing. Even without Bush, I totally expected the Lions to have a bounce back year from that horrid 4-12 record last year. Bush is going to make that bounce back up go higher, but how high? Bush showed how high by saying “We have the guys here to be able to win a Super Bowl.” While the rest of the Lions are mumbling about respect and keeping their eyes low, trying not to step on each other. Bush has head held high and speaks strongly, for he can see the horizon. That’s the definition of a leader.

Words are great but without production they mean nothing. How is Bush going to pull this off? Think Marshall Faulk. What made the Rams the “Greatest Show on Turf” was the versatility of Faulk. Running up the gut and catching flair passes all over the place. I think the Detroit Lions envision the exact same role for Bush.

The Lions actually have the tools to match that great offense of yesteryear. They already have the best receiver on the planet and Stafford looks like he’s ready to atone for his lackluster performance last year. I don’t know who is going to be the number 2 receiver but I think Ryan Broyles is going to have a breakout year. He could be the next great slot receiver in the league. Everybody is worried about the offensive line not pass blocking as well this year. We’ll see about that, what they really need to do is run the ball better.

It’s all there for Bush. The talent surrounding him and being in the right place at the right time. If he can reel off four or five Faulk like years and be the one carrying the torch when the Lions reach the mountaintop? How can that NOT get you in the Hall of Fame.