Dec 2, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions running back Mikel Leshoure (25) celebrates a touchdown with quarterback Matthew Stafford (left) and wide receiver Calvin Johnson (right) during the second quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

It may feel like the 2013 NFL season is still a long way off – in fact, it is still nearly 100 days away – but Yahoo has already opened up fantasy football leagues with drafts starting in a matter of days.

While I wouldn’t advise anyone to draft this far in advance, it is worth taking a look at the initial rankings. A standard league consists of ten teams with a roster size of 15 players. That makes for 150 “roster worthy” or “draftable” players.

The Detroit Lions have five such players:

Calvin Johnson (#1 WR, #6 Overall) – Megatron finished with more fantasy points in 2012 than any other wide receiver despite scoring just five touchdowns. We know his yardage total will be high given the Lions style of play but a touchdown total back in double figures could make a mid-first round selection look like a steal.

Reggie Bush (#22 RB, #46 Overall) – Bush put up the 14th most points by a running back in 2012 and moves to a better offensive team yet doesn’t crack the running back top 20. Perhaps there is some lingering questions regarding how the Lions will use him and his workload, but Bush looks like a prime candidate to rise in the rankings down the road.

Matthew Stafford (#9 QB, #56 Overall) – Based on his play last year, Stafford is just about perfectly ranked as the #9 fantasy QB. Someone in your league will be drafting Stafford as their starter while it might feel like getting the ninth quarterback in a ten team league, Stafford’s 2011 season shows there is a lot of upside.

Mikel Leshoure (#34 RB, #94 Overall) – Bush will deeply cut into Leshoure’s workload compared to what he had in 2012 but that doesn’t mean he can’t help a desperate fantasy owner. The bulk of Leshoure’s 2012 fantasy value came through his 9 touchdowns, tied with Ray Rice for ninth most in the NFL. Leshoure may be able to maintain a surprising touchdown total if the Lions turn to him as the primary back inside the opponents’ ten yard line.

Brandon Pettigrew (#17 TE, #144 Overall) – After a brutal 2012 season, it appears the fantasy community is expecting a bounce-back year for Pettigrew. He was nearly a top ten fantasy tight end in 2011 before dealing with a series of injuries that limited his effectiveness in 2012. Healthy and entering a contract year, Pettigrew’s future with the Lions may depend on this upcoming season.

Photo Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Today we take a look at how the Detroit Lions’ tight ends performed during the 2012 season with a little help from the fine folks at Pro Football Focus.

The radar chart below shows the Pro Football Focus grades for the Lions’ tight ends that played at least 25% of team snaps and compares them to the best, worst and league average ratings. PFF grades each player on each play to produce a massively useful tool for evaluating the totality of a player’s season compared to others at his position.

2012 Season Review
Your highest rated Detroit Lions tight end for the 2012 season is… Will Heller! And therein lies the problem with the Detroit Lions’ tight ends. It’s not a knock against Heller. He has done a fine job with what the Lions have asked him to do. It’s just that they should be getting more from the players they ask more from. Heller’s +2.4 pass block rating from Pro Football Focus was sixth best among tight ends that played at least 25% of team snaps. Season stats: 17 rec, 150 yards, 1 TD.

Tony Scheffler – Letj’s be honest, Tony Scheffler has one role on this team and that is to catch passes. He isn’t a prototypical tight end and he’ll be split out wide in most offensive sets. He provides value when he is making catches, ideally for first downs and touchdowns. He did just that in 2011 but not as much in 2012. His touchdown total fell from six to one and his percentage of catches going for first downs dropped from 77% in 2011 to 67% in 2012. Season stats: 42 rec, 504 yards, 1 TD.

Brandon Pettigrew – It was a rather forgettable season for Brandon Pettigrew. His ball security issues continued, both with drops and turnovers. He had costly fumbles against the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans that helped turn those games for the opponent and was among the tight end league leaders in drops. Injuries didn’t help as Pettigrew missed a couple games and lacked the ability to separate from defenders when he did play. In total, it came out to a -10 passing game rating from Pro Football Focus. Only Kellen Davis was worse. He was somewhat effective as a pass blocker (+1.6) but offset that with his run blocking (-1.6). Season stats: 59 rec, 567 yards, 3 TD.

Offseason Plan
Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler each have one year remaining on their contracts so they will both be back barring another front office search for change in the couch cushions. Scheffler will need to be counted on for a big role in the passing offense with injuries taking a toll on the Lions wide receiver depth. He is a one-dimensional tight end so he needs to excel in that dimension.

Pettigrew might be facing a make-or-break season in the last year of his rookie contract. It’s time to show that he can put the drops behind him and, more importantly, not fumble the ball once he has made a catch. The selection of Brandon Pettigrew was sold to the fans as a pick that would help the Lions in the running game and passing game. Pettigrew’s problems in the passing game are well documented but it has been two full season since Pettigrew could be seen as an asset to the Lions’ ground attack. Injuries are partly to blame for limiting Pettigrew’s effectiveness in 2012. This offseason is all about getting healthy in hopes of proving to the Lions that they can count on him as part of their team going forward.

Ideally, Pettigrew is the do-everything tight end the Lions envisioned when they drafted him but he hasn’t been that yet so Will Heller’s role has been more important than it probably should be. He was the team’s best blocking tight end in 2012 and showed the ability to catch the football once in a while. The Lions should be able to easily bring him back at a low cost, but might be wise to do so only after seeing if they can add Alabama tight end Michael Williams as a very late draft choice.

Previously: Wide Receivers, Offensive Tackles, Guards, Center

*Those that have been around the Detroit Lions blogosphere for a while may recognize the approach presented as similar to Ty Schalter’s ‘Old Mother Hubbard’ series on The Lions in Winter. Don’t worry, he’s cool with what I’m doing here and has assured me that he’ll be back with Old Mother Hubbard later in the offseason.

November 22, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Houston Texans free safety Danieal Manning (38) strips the ball from Detroit Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew (87) during the 2nd half at Ford Field. Texans won 34-31. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

Brandon Pettigrew has a problem holding on to the football. That isn’t up for debate, all that can be discussed is the frequency and the extent to which it is a problem for the Detroit Lions.

Pro Football Focus recently took a look at dropped passes by tight ends. As expected, Brandon Pettigrew makes the list for one of the highest drop totals in the league with nine during the 2012 season. That puts him in a tie with Jermichael Finley for third most, but the names that dropped more passes might surprise you. Aaron Hernandez dropped the second most with ten while Jimmy Graham was well ahead of the pack with 15 dropped passes.

Obviously, looking at the total number of drops is a terrible comparison since tight ends are used in different ways and to varying degrees in a team’s passing attack. The people at PFF are smart people and know basic math concepts so they went a step further to provide the drop information in the form of a percentage of catchable passes that were dropped.

With a drop rate of 13.24%, Pettigrew doesn’t come out looking any better, but he also doesn’t come out looking any worse. His drop rate was good (bad?) for fourth-worst but still better than higher profile names of Jimmy Graham (15%) and Aaron Hernandez (16.39%). Delanie Walker just made the cut with 30 catchable passes, of which he dropped a staggering 30%.

So, yes, no matter how you look at it, Brandon Pettigrew really does drop an inordinate amount of passes. The question is, how big of a problem is it for the Lions?

I’m inclined to discount the problem to some degree based on the company Pettigrew finds on the drops list. The New Orleans Saints aren’t looking to run Jimmy Graham out of town, nor are the New England Patriots with Aaron Hernandez. But those players are certainly more dynamic than Pettigrew so there is often more good to take with the bad.

All players have strengths and weaknesses, it just so happens that Pettigrew’s most glaring weakness is holding on to the football and this is where the true problem goes beyond just dropped passes. Pettigrew fumbled the ball four times in 2012. Compare that to Jimmy Graham’s one fumble and none for Aaron Hernandez. Guarantee me that once it is in his hands, it won’t leave his hands and I can put up with Pettigrew’s drops.