Nov 25, 2012; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Reggie Wayne (87) runs away from Buffalo Bills strong safety George Wilson (37) during the game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas J. Russo-US PRESSWIRE

The Detroit Lions have consistently fell short of expectations this season while the Indianapolis Colts have consistently exceeded expectations. It might seem like that would be reflected in how this week’s game between the Lions and Colts is viewed but that isn’t the case.

The early betting line has installed the Lions as favorites over the Colts. The line currently sits at a solid 4.5 points in the Lions’ favor with an over/under set at 51 total points.

Are the sports books disrespecting the 7-4 Colts or expecting the 4-7 Lions to finally live up to what they are supposed to be? As it turns out, the line might be a better indication of reality than the standings.

The Colts deserve a ton of credit for their improbable 7-4 mark so far this season but how they’ve gotten to this point is very interesting. They have been outscored by a total of 43 points this year. Compare that to the Lions who have been outscored by just 13 points.

Smart people figured out that scoring differential tends to correlate to a team’s record quite well (read more about that here). When calculating the expected W-L record for each team, the Lions come out ahead at 5.2-5.8 compared to 4.4-6.6 for the Colts.

What bearing does all this have on the game? Not a whole lot, except it goes to show that when the Colts win, the game is usually close and when it’s not, the Colts lose. That is probably a good read on the game against the Lions. Either they will man up and win comfortably or show that they are ready to pack it in and lose. I just don’t see a scenario where the Lions win but don’t cover the spread.

How would you bet?

Sep 30, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Minnesota Vikings offensive line lines up against Detroit Lions defensive line during the second quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-US PRESSWIRE

The Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings feel like two teams heading in the opposite direction.

The Lions struggled out of the gate while the Vikings were one of the NFL’s pleasant surprises. However, the Lions have won three of their last four games while the Vikings have lost three of their last four. Will the trend continue?

The sports books have an uncanny ability of “knowing” things and provide an interesting first look at any matchup.

The early betting line has installed the Lions as road favorites over the Vikings. The line currently sits at 2 points in the Lions’ favor with an over/under set at 47 total points.

Christian Ponder struggled last week, throwing for just 63 yards against the Seahawks. With Percy Harvin expected to miss Sunday’s game, it’s hard to see the Vikings mustering much on offense besides whatever Adrian Peterson can give them. The Lions don’t have a history of playing well in Minneapolis but given where each team appears to be heading, I would pick the Lions to cover and the game to finish under 47 total points.

How would you bet?

Oct 14, 2012; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Detroit Lions head coach Jim Schwartz along the sidelines during the second quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. The Lions defeated the Eagles 26-23 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-US PRESSWIRE

The Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks are two teams that have surprised many during the first part of the 2012 season. Unfortunately for Lions fans, and to the delight of Seahawks fans, the teams have surprised for completely different reasons.

The Seahawks are off to a 4-3 start thanks to a strong defense and the timely play making ability of rookie quarterback Russell Wilson (ok, and a terrible call from a replacement official). Meanwhile, the Lions have been one of the league’s biggest disappointments. The high-powered offense on display during the 2011 season has been neutralized, seemingly from within and from without, and special teams play has been horrendous.

So, the Seahawks should be favored over the Lions, right? Not according to the people that like to risk money on such things.

The early betting line has installed the Lions as favorites over the visiting Seahawks. The line currently sits at two points with an over/under set at 43.5 points.

Maybe the Lions being two point favorites isn’t a huge surprise but the point total of 43.5 seems high. The Lions offense hasn’t been on track all season and both teams boast top-ten defenses. Give me the Lions -2 and the under.

How would you bet?