SideLion Report Week 13 Picks
By Matt Urben
See what our writers had to say about week 13
Surprise, surprise, the Lions squeaked out another come-from-behind win over the Minnesota Vikings last week. Sam Bradford’s squad has a 6-6 record, one win better than this week’s opponent – the New Orleans Saints. The Saints are coming off of a blowout win over the LA Rams, but haven’t been very consistent with a 5-6 record. Drew Brees at home in the dome is always dangerous, though. Our writers pick the Lions game and one other match-up from around the league.
Al Stahl (5-5)
Detroit-24, New Orleans-27.
Another week, another nail-biter, but this one ends poorly for the Lions. The Lions’ offense has been efficient all season, but they haven’t been scoring much lately. Stafford and company have scored more than 20 points in regulation just once in their past five games. New Orleans doesn’t exactly boast a great defense, but the Saints offense could keep number 9 sidelined for a majority of this contest.While the Lions’ defense has looked better recently, they may not only be without DeAndre Levy this week, but Tahir Whitehead looks like he may not suit up on Sunday.
Josh Bynes as the MLB and fifth round pick Antwione Williams alongside him would make for a pretty rough afternoon in the passing game.In the end, I see the Lions climbing back into this one late, but just not having enough juice in the tank to complete their fourth straight fourth quarter comeback, which means the playoffs (along with the division lead) will begin to look a whole lot less certain after Green Bay wins their second straight.
Houston-16, Green Bay-23.
The Packers aren’t very good this year. When they play against good offenses, they get creamed. Houston does not have a good offense. The Packers have held opponents under 17 points in three of their five victories this season. In their losses (against the numbers 1, 3, 5, 9, 12 and Minnesota’s 21 ranked scoring offenses), the Packers have given up 30+ points in 5 of 6 games and 40+ points in 2 of those. Again, I’ll remind you that Houston does not have a good offense. The Texans rank 30th in scoring offense and have scored more than 20 points in just 4 games this year.
The Packers offense has quietly been stringing together solid performances, even through their losing streak. Green Bay is averaging almost 27 points per game in their last five contests. Houston’s defense is nothing to sneeze at, but neither was Philadelphia’s.The Packers win on Sunday and the NFC North crown will come down to that Week 17 contest in Detroit. – Follow Al @LethalSax
Brandon Finley (7-1)
Detroit-24, New Orleans-20.
The league’s bottom 3rd down defense against Drew Brees. Detroit has ridden a luck streak that has them at 6-1 in their last 7, but can they keep it up? While New Orleans has an atrocious defense, the lack of run game will make things difficult. If it’s a shootout I’m taking New Orleans, but if it’s a lower scoring affair, I’m taking Matthew and the gang all the way to the NFC north title.
Atlanta-35, Kansas City-24.
Justin Houston looked as all pro as ever last week with 3 sacks and a forced fumble. With that being said, he wasn’t even the top performer on his team as Tyreek Hill scores three times in three different ways. The real challenge this week comes from the Falcons offense as Matt Ryan is playing at an MVP level. While I think the Chiefs defense is the biggest factor here in terms of disrupting Matt Ryan, I don’t think they have enough on the offensive side of the ball to outmatch Atlanta. As Andy Reid put it, if you want any chance at stopping Julio Jones, you have to hope he misses the bus. I got Atlanta taking this one. – Follow Brandon on Twitter @Finley_BD
Matt Urben (4-6)
Detroit-35, New Orleans-32.
The Saints are coming off of their best offensive performance of the season, scoring 49 points on a pretty respectable Rams defense last week. While Drew Brees is capable of doing that to anyone, the Rams were putrid on offense with rookie Jared Goff making his second career start. Most are expecting this to be a shootout, and as much as both defenses have improved, I can’t help but agree.
With 30 touchdowns already, Brees has thrown 30 or more TDs in nine straight seasons. Stafford doesn’t have as gaudy of numbers this season, but his QB rating of 99.3 and seven comeback wins would suggest he’s playing the best football of his career. Without Tahir Whitehead or DeAndre Levy, the Lions will be thin at linebacker. However, the secondary has played better over the past few weeks and I think they do just enough to win a barnburner.
San Francisco-23, Chicago-19.
This is the battle for the second overall pick, assuming the Browns don’t go on a winning streak. I initially was going to pick the Bears in this one because I like their defense. But it seems that Colin Kaepernick has remembered that he used to be an extremely good quarterback. I’m not suggesting he’s back to being the guy that led the 49ers to the Super Bowl a few years ago, but he will be the best QB on the field on Sunday. I like the Niners in a close one. – Follow Matt @MattUrben88
Ty Finch (2-6)
Detroit-24, New Orleans-28.
After facing a few cupcake offenses in the past couple of weeks, (Houston, Minnesota, Jacksonville) the Lions’ defense face a true test of its character and newfound competence. Not only do the Saints boast a top five pass offense according to DVOA, but they also rank 6th in rushing offense. The Lions defense has held each of the last five opponents to 20 or fewer points, but the Saints average 30.4 points per game. They also top the league in total yards, yards per game, passing yards, passing yards per game, and are 2nd in total points and points per game. If the Lions defense can hold the Saints to around 20 points again, the optimism surrounding their rise will be justified.
The Saints defense is much improved as well over the past few weeks. They have risen from bottom of the league to 22nd in overall defensive DVOA. That is not to say that they are formidable by any means, but most horror stories of their defensive woes are overblown. The Lions offense should, and has to, be able to put up points on them if they have a chance to win. Luckily, the Saints’ worst aspect of that side of the ball is their pass defense, which coincides with what the Lions do best on offense. Matthew Stafford will need to be at his absolute best to keep up with the Saints offense. I don’t think the defense will give him the opportunity.
New York Giants-45, Pittsburgh Steelers-10.
When looking only at the statistics, this game looks to be in the bag for the Steelers already, which is surprising given the Giants’ record. New York’s weakness defensively in against the run, while Pittsburgh’s rushing offense has been much improved since Le’Veon Bell came back from suspension. The Giants’ offense has been below average in both areas, while the Steelers’ defense is above average in both areas.
The only problem is that Pittsburgh has been increasingly volatile week by week. Much like the Lions, it is impossible to accurately predict how this team will perform. When looking only at the team’s nicknames, the Giants should literally crush the Steelers. Considering that I am apparently Super Not Good ™ at predicting games, this will be the way I pick this one. The Giants have a huge edge on the Steelers in this aspect. In fact, they should win most games in this league. They have a massive advantage in that Giants are notoriously immense beings.
Paul Bunyan, a famous large person, was rumored to be “63 axe handles high” which does not translate very well in today’s society, but simple math tells us that 63 axe handles high is approximately 94 feet (given the average axe handle is 18 inches long of course). Bunyan was also “strong as 10 grizzlies,” and if you’ve seen The Revenant, you know it is quite hard to even survive one grizzly attack. The largest person on the Steelers is guard Ramon Foster, and he is 87.6 feet shorter than Paul Bunyan. I somehow doubt he can take on 10 grizzlies, either. I just hope the Steelers get out of this game alive. – Follow Ty @Finchty
Jack Ozark (5-4)
Detroit-20, New Orleans-27.
Where the Lions are going to keep games close, the Saints win blowouts. I have trouble even putting the game this close. I think that Detroit is going to be playing from behind the entire game, and only make it look close on a last second meaningless drive. There is a part of me however that sees the Saints having one of there off weeks and get nothing going all day. Detroit needs that to happen, and luckily that’s what has been happening sans the first half against Green Bay.
But to even be close the Lions offense needs to show up and what really needs to happens is Marvin Jones and Golden Tate need to both have a good game at once. If they are both going then Detroit should be able to keep up. The Saints at home and Drew Brees playing like Drew Brees is going to keep me worried all Sunday afternoon. Either way, let’s thank the Cowboys (which I hate saying) for giving Detroit more breathing room.
Miami-10, Baltimore-20.
It’s a battle of the middle tier quarterbacks and big name defenses. Miami has been one of the hottest teams as of late, and Baltimore has been either real hot or real cold all year. Tannehill is having another season that keeps Dolphins fans wondering if he’s actually good enough. Flacco on the other hand is a relatively decent big arm quarterback, but he has some jewelry that automatically makes him better.
These are the tier of quarterbacks that I would have placed Stafford in before this season, where you’ll be getting eight great games out of them and eight gross ones per season. On the coin flip of who will play well I’ll go with Joe Flacco this week. The Dolphins have been too hot as of late and the Ravens are the type of team that will not only put them in their place but make them question their quarterback again. – Follow Jack @J_zark