The 2014 NFL Draft is approaching and the Houston Texans are giving little indication as to what they will do with the first overall pick. While no one would be surprised if the Detroit Lions made a bold move up, don’t expect them to go all the way up to the first pick.
Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports tweeted today that belief around the league is that the Atlanta Falcons are the team most likely to make a deal with the Texans, if Houston doesn’t keep it, with Jadeveon Clowney as their target.
There are no shortage of execs in the league who believe the Texans best odds of trading out of 1st overall is w/ Atlanta to get Clowney
— Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora) April 24, 2014
The implication here for the Lions goes beyond Clowney coming off the board – the Lions drafting him was probably the most unrealistic scenario of the elite prospects the Lions have had for visits. What is more important is that the Falcons trading up from sixth to first could set the market for a potential deal for the Lions moving from tenth to second.
Let me explain.
According to the draft pick value chart, the first overall pick is worth 3,000 points while the sixth is worth 1,600. That’s a difference of 1,400 points.
The tenth pick currently held by the Lions is valued at 1,300 points while the second pick is 2,600 points. That’s a difference of 1,300 points, not far off the relative value of moving from sixth to first. In other words, if the Falcons and Texans are able to make a deal, we can expect it would take a similar package for the Lions to move from 10 to 2, as some have speculated they might.