The Detroit Lions’ mission over the last four games is simple: do what it takes to win the NFC North. The best way to go about that is to win at least three of their final four games. Do that and they won’t have to worry about getting any help from the Chicago Bears or Green Bay Packers.
According to Ken Massey, one of the BCS computer masterminds, the Lions game against the Eagles is the one of the four remaining they are least likely to win. Massey gives the Lions a win probability of just 36%, predicting a 27-24 loss.
Not surprisingly, the sports books aren’t much different. Here is a look at this week’s betting action from SportsPlays.com:
Against the spread
Lions +2.5 (+100)
Eagles -2.5 (-120)
Over 54 (-110)
Under 54 (-110)
Can the Lions pull off the upset? That probably depends on their ability to hold on to the football and to force the Eagles offense into some mistakes. The Eagles have turned the ball over just once in their last four games while forcing their opponents into at least two turnovers. They are just +7 on turnovers for the year but +8 during their four-game winning streak. The Lions’ turnover problems are well documented as they have averaged four per game over their last three.