The Odds of Winning the 2012 Super Bowl

The Detroit Lions have made a most important group of folks take notice.  That group would be the people placing “futures” bets on the winner if the 2012 Super Bowl.  In one sense you could say that the experts are paying close attention.

I was in Las Vegas for a few days recently and I made an effort to get into a sports book to see the odds for a Super Bowl win for all NFL teams.  I was also interested to see what the odds were for winning a NFC or an AFC Championship.

I had a conversation with one of the guys working behind the counter taking bets and he told me what they have seen since the line opened and what they have seen since the draft in late April.  He explained that there is a substantial, surprising amount of money being bet on the Detroit Lions.  

So much money that he and the four men near him shook their heads when he said that it seemed like every time someone wanted to place a “futures” bet that it seemed like it was coming in on the Lions.  They explained that it was interesting to them because the Lions have risen up the boards like crazy this off-season.

They also explained that it is not just post draft money because the odds have steadily improved since the Super Bowl ended.  They also dispelled the notion that a lot of local money is coming in from the Detroit area.  There simply isn’t enough money from one place to move the number so much, this is a national thing.

I was shocked to see where the Detroit Lions opened (the opening line is what the odds were immediately after the Packers won the Super Bowl in 2011) and to see where they were as of May 3, 2011.  The Lions opened at 75-1 to win the 2012 Super Bowl.  The only way that number moves is either from not enough money coming in at that number or too much. 

In this case, it’s too much money and too much money causes that number to go from 75-1 in early February to 22-1 as of May 3, 2011.  Let that sink in a little bit.  The Lions also opened at 30-1 to win the NFC Championship and are now 10-1.  Needless to say, there are a lot of people thinking it is realistic enough for the Lions to have a chance and they are putting their money behind that possibility.

Tags: Detroit Lions Las Vegas Odds Super Bowl

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