For the second consecutive week the ESPN panel of experts is unanimously picking the Detroit Lions to lose. One can only imagine each ESPN personality featured in their weekly pick ‘em is smiling because they know this one will go down as a win in their personal record.
Accuscore runs 10,000 game simulations to predict the outcome of each game. Here is what they had to say about the Lions’ chances against the Patriots:
The New England Patriots are a heavy favorite winning 78% of simulations over the Detroit Lions. Tom Brady is averaging 290 passing yards and 1.94 TDs per simulation and BenJarvus Green-Ellis is projected for 58 rushing yards and a 41% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 22% of simulations where Detroit Lions wins, Shaun Hill averages 2.04 TD passes vs 0.59 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.5 TDs to 1.12 interceptions. Maurice Morris averages 61 rushing yards and 0.4 rushing TDs when Detroit Lions wins and 35 yards and 0.16 TDs in losses. The New England Patriots have a 59% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 90% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is DET +6.5 — Over/Under line is 50.5
EA Sports ran a Madden 11 video game simulation of the Thanksgiving Day game in Detroit and they like New England to win by more than the 6.5 point spread Accuscore predicts. Final score: Patriots 27, Lions 17
The Lions make a game out of a mismatch, but in the end, turnovers ruin any plans of an upset as Shaun Hill throws two costly interceptions in New England’s 27-17 win. Tom Brady threw three touchdown passes and Wes Welker caught six passes for 72 yards and a score to help the formidable Pats move to 9-2 on the season.
Player of the Game: Tom Brady
The predictions and simulations don’t look good but there is one way to reason a Lions win over the Patriots: the parity wheel. An image went viral Wednesday that links every team together in a circular fashion based on game results so far. Check it out below:
The numbers between each logo represent the final score of a game between the two teams this season. Go around clockwise to follow the winners and counter-clockwise to follow the losers. Based on this we can obviously say the Lions will beat the Patriots because: The Lions beat the Redskins who beat the Eagles who beat the Giants who beat the Bears who beat the Packers who beat the Jets who beat the Patriots. See? Easy as that!