Man, Math and Machine Disagree on Buffalo Bills-Detroit Lions Outcome

Whether Lions fans like it or not, the Lions appear to be underdogs across the board as they head into Sunday’s game in Buffalo.

One week after going out on a limb to pick the Lions over the Jets, Ron Jaworski is off the Lions bandwagon and picking the Bills to win. Five of his contemporaries on the ESPN panel of experts agree. Chris Mortensen and Mark Schlereth are the only two of the eight man panel to go with the Leos.

Accuscore runs 10,000 game simulations to predict the outcome of each game. Here is what they had to say about the Lions’ chances in Buffalo:

AccuScore is forecasting a close game with the Detroit Lions winning 42% of simulations, and the Buffalo Bills 58% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Detroit Lions commit fewer turnovers in 36% of simulations and they go on to win 67% when they take care of the ball. The Buffalo Bills wins 73% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Jahvid Best is averaging 59 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (26% chance) then he helps his team win 65%. Fred Jackson is averaging 58 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (18% chance) then he helps his team win 79%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is BUF -2.5 — Over/Under line is 44

EA Sports used Madden 11 simulations to correctly predict 83% of games last week. Good news since they like the Lions to win by a score of 21-16.

With Matthew Stafford once again sidelined due to injury, can Buffalo find a way to beat the Lions and earn their first win of the season? Don’t count on it, at least according to “Madden,” as Shaun Hill throws two touchdown passes and Jahvid Best adds a score on the ground to help Detroit beat the Bills, 21-16.

Player of the Game: Shaun Hill

Check back later today for predictions from the SideLion Report writers.

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